Friday, February 27, 2009

The Hot Crossed Friday Premiership Predictions

Predictions for this weekends Premiership action...


Saturday

Everton vs West Brom (12.45 Kick Off, live on Sky)

A particularly uninspiring game to kick the weekend off, with Everton looking to keep the pressure on the top 4 without the services of Mikel Arteta who is out for the season. West Brom are looking certainties for the drop as things stand but I can see them picking up a point in this game. Expect West Brom to occupy a deeper position than an armbandless baby in a swimming pool, and hold out for a 0-0 draw.

Draw


Arsenal vs Fulham (3pm Kickoff)

A big game for Arsenal, particularly following their last league outing at the Emirates last weekend. While Fulham are quite comparable in terms of difficulty to Sunderland, I see a comfortable win for the gunners this weekend. They know how important 3 points is tomorrow, and with the pressure temporarily lifted from their shoulders following a morale boosting win over Roma, Arsenal will coast to a 3-0 victory in this tie.

Home Win


Chelsea vs Wigan (3pm Kickoff)

Wigan are another one of the sides with not much riding on their league form, but this game has something different about it than the game taking place in North London. Hiddink will not allow complacency to set in for his first home league game, but I feel that Chelsea will have their eye off the ball for this one. Wigan may not have a huge amount to play for, but Steve Bruce is not the kind of manager to let them rest on their laurels. Players like Hugo Rodallega will be trying to prove themselves and I can see a score draw taking place at the bridge.

Draw


Middlebrough vs Liverpool (3pm Kickoff, Live on Setanta Ireland)

The riverside has proved to be a tricky place for visiting big 4 teams over the last few years, and Liverpool will no doubt be placed under pressure with Gareth Southgate’s men desperate to move out of the relegation zone. Liverpool will undoubtedly field a weakened team following their trip to Madrid and with a game against Sunderland to follow on Tuesday, so expect to see the likes of David Ngog, Lucas and Ryan Babel involved. Despite this I can see Liverpool winning, as Middlesbrough have to go for the win and this will suit Benitez’s team. A brave Middlesbrough to go down 2-0.

Away win.


Sunday

Hull vs Blackburn (12.30pm Kickoff)

This is the game of the weekend in my humble opinion, and arguably the real first relegation six pointer of the year. Hull have been falling faster than a banker’s pension, and find themselves only 5 points away from the relegation zone, a position that was unthinkable back in December when they last won a league game. Blackburn for all the good work that has been done under Allardyce are only one position higher from when he started, and had a bad result in the midweek FA cup ties. The added subplot of the apprentice taking on his master is apparent in Phil Brown meeting Sam Allardyce for the first time, and will add spice to an already tasty encounter. Call me stupid if you will, but Hull have to win at some stage and I have a feeling Geovanni may be involved for the first time in a while. I can see a high scoring home win, perhaps a 3-2 or something like that. Expect fireworks.

Home Win


West Ham vs Manchester City (12.30pm Kickoff)

This is potentially an utterly uninteresting game, but the only intrigue for me comes from how City build on a useful 1-1 draw at Anfield and their progression in the UEFA cup. Mark Hughes appeared a very happy man after last nights game, and he is no doubt aware of the importance of a good cup run in regard to his future of manager. West Ham have hit a bit of a slump following a good run of form, and I can see another good win for Robinho and his gang.

Away Win


Bolton vs Newcastle (1pm Kickoff)

An absolutely massive game for the toon, with Chris Hughton continuing to take charge as JFK recovers from his quite possibly verbally induced heart problems. Gary Megson continues to do an excellent job with no credit whatsoever, and the siege mentality that pervades Bolton has led me to believe that they can achieve a sixth place finish. Newcastle are in a bad place right now, and I just can’t see them getting anything out of this game. They would do well to remember the last time they won at Bolton, the first day of the 2007/2008 season, and Sam Allardyce’s first game in charge. He is lurking manacingly with his Blackburn side in wait for them to slip, and to take revenge on his former employers.

Home Win


Aston Villa vs Stoke (3pm Kickoff)

"It stayed personal for him and had nothing to do with football. I suddenly realised my manager could destroy my career. He must really have had a down on me, because why would he effectively destroy my chances for me to change clubs?" Thomas Sorenson certainly doesn’t appear to have much time for Martin O’Neill, and his first return to Villa Park appears a good opportunity to stick it to his former manager. Villa have looked tired in recent weeks, leading O’Neill to rest 9 first teamers for the trip to CSKA Moscow. It’s a gut feeling, but I think that Stoke might just nick this one, with a bit of help from their keeper along the way.

Away Win.

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posted by Oz @ 12:18 PM   0 Comments

Looking beyond the bright lights of the Premiership

A dull premiership title race might drive fans to the championship...


Recently I’ve heard a few comments declaring this year’s season the worst in Premier League history. A bit harsh I thought until I had a look at the table and this week’s fixtures what is in store is underwhelming to say the least. In terms of the title race, Liverpool go to Middlesbrough to try to use their game in hand to close the gap at the top to four points, Chelsea who appear out of the running are home to Wigan and surprise fourth place Aston Villa are at home to Stoke. Even if Villa lose this game and Arsenal win at home to Fulham, Martin O’Neill’s side will remain in a Champions League spot. Unfortunately, as is the case most seasons it’s just not close at the top and as United continue to grind results out week after week it seems inevitable that they will retain their title for their 11th Premier League crown in this the 17th year of the competition.


Since Blackburn Rovers lifted the trophy in 1995, only three clubs have won the Premier League - Manchester United (eight times), Arsenal (three times) and Chelsea (twice). In addition, Manchester United have not finished outside the top three since the formation of the Premier League, with Arsenal finishing inside the top five in all but two seasons, while Liverpool, without an English league title since the pre-Premier League era, have not finished lower than fifth since 1999.

It is hard to complain however; this week we watched all four English teams perform marvellously against other European superpowers in the Champions League. The problem therefore is that the top four are very good, too good in fact for the rest of the league and this juxtaposition has in recent years made the relegation fight rather than the title race the most interesting contest in the run in to the seasons close. This season Aston Villa have shown great heart and spirit to maintain a 4th spot as we move into March but the fear I have is Everton were in a similar position last year before as anticipated running out of steam so that the normality of the top four resumed.

A quick and easy solution for disgruntled Premier League fans is to turn their attention to the Coca Cola Championship. The Championship is a rare and unique league in that each year throws together totally different fortunes for many of the different teams. It must be the most unpredictable league in Europe. There are few other leagues where a team can start the season with four consecutive defeats and finish as Champions a la Sunderland under Roy Keane. This time last year Watford were setting the pace in the league and looking certain to qualify automatically for the Premier League, they currently lie 18th, three points above the drop zone. In '07-'08, the difference between promotion and relegation was a meager 27 points and from one week to the next the league table becomes irrelevant as each game can swing either way.

It makes for a very exciting league, any team can go up or any team can get relegated. Last season three very unlikely teams joined the World’s greatest league. Stoke City were rank outsiders for promotion before the season, but somehow managed to shock everyone. The same goes for Hull City who, seen as mid-table finishers again after avoiding relegation the year before, somehow managed third place and a playoff final victory at Wembley. This season Wolves, who have long threatened to reach the Premiership are in poll position but are closely followed by Birmingham and Reading. Another factor that makes the Championship so exciting is the virtual lottery that is the playoffs. Currently all of the top 11 clubs at least are capable of making the playoffs.

The race for the playoffs endures many twists and changes and ensures that many teams still have it all to play for right throughout the season. A team that just miss out on automatic promotion and come third can come up against a team who scraped into fifth position on the final day of the season for a multi million pound tie, it may not be the fairest system but it is the unpredictability that makes it so exciting for the fans.

It must be a great league to support a club in, of course without the same levels of money there isn’t the same talent on show from foreign imports but fans pay a more reasonable price into a variety of stadiums ranging from modern to traditional, there is an abundance of talent (mainly home grown) on show and a scalp occurs almost every week. Every season there are six new teams in the Championship, whether it is via promotion from League One or Relegation from the Premier League, meaning each and every season is fresh and exciting. What it means is that season after season genuine football fans of at least 12 clubs can watch their teams praying that they scrape the results to put them in the mix come play-off time. What it means is that fans can go from watching their teams against the likes of Plymouth and Doncaster one season to visiting Old Trafford and Anfield the next. That is the dream and a roller coaster journey is guaranteed if a club are to achieve it.



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posted by Shane @ 11:06 AM   0 Comments

Thursday, February 26, 2009

It would be schadenfreude to write these Germans off

Bayern's 5-0 win proves they are champions league contenders, in spite of Jurgen Klinnsman...


As the Liverpool squad warmed down in the Bernabeu last night following another excellent away victory in the competition which defines Rafael Benitez as a manager, people’s thoughts inevitably turned to the post match interview following the latest set of rumours that have arisen about his future. The source of this constant speculation can be traced back just over a year ago, when the clubs two bumbling American owners let slip that they had considered Jurgen Klinnsman as an insurance policy in the event that Benitez might walk away from the club.

While Europe waited in baited breath for Rafa’s take on the matter, Klinnsman himself must have been revelling in what was an excellent away display against an admittedly poor Sporting Lisbon side. Bayern defeated Sporting 5-0, with goals coming from Franck Ribery (2), Luca Toni (2) and Miroslav Klose. The talk of the office in my place of work has been about the 4 English teams and Barcelona as potential winners, but the idea of Bayern as potential champions has on the whole been laughed off. Anyone tempted to play down their chances would do well to remember the old adage – never write off the Germans.

It is a fair point that Bayern have been poor in the Bundesliga this year. They currently sit in 4th place, 4 points behind leaders Hamburg and also chasing surprise package TSG Hoffenheim and Hertha Berlin. It is also no exaggeration to say that the Munich public have not taken to Klinnsmans methods. I myself recently wrote in a blog post that he risks being consigned to the list of managers to impress at an international tournament and fall away. No amount of column inches and opinion spouting however can take away from the fact that Bayern Munich are in possession of what is an extremely tasty team.

The talisman of course, is one Franck Ribery. Ribery is the reigning Bundesliga player of the season, following a superlative season last year which saw him score a hatful of goals. It is a measure of how far the Bundesliga has fallen from the European consciousness that he was not being talked about in the same breath as Ronaldo, Messi et al, as he is undoubtedly in the same class as the aforementioned. Ribery also appears to have settled extremely well in Munich, taking to the German culture like a fish in water, and the Bayern fans have reciprocated, showing their appreciation for the Gallic flair and excitement that the former Marseille man brings to the table.

Bayern’s strike force may not be the paceiest, but it is one that can certainly get goals. Luca Toni is much maligned on these shores following a disastrous Euro 2008 championship with Italy, but those who mock his exploits with the national side should take a look at his goal scoring records for Bayern first. Toni scored 24 goals in 31 games in the league last season, and a good deal more in Bayern’s UEFA cup run to the semi finals, where they were surprisingly halted by the talents of Andrei Arshavin and Zenit St Petersburg. Miroslav Klose provides to foil to the more powerful Toni, and his record of 9 goals and 5 assists in the league so far this season illustrates that he is much more than the pure goals corer he is perceived as by fans of the premiership.

A silky and solid defensive partnership of the Rio Ferdinand esque Lucio and the rugged Argentinian Martin Demichelis is complimented at full back by the marauding Philipp Lahm and one of either the Italian Massimo Oddo, or German prospect Christian Lell. Although the clubs record of 30 goals conceded in 21 games is not very good, this is a defence that can step up to the plate and deliver on any given day, and the likes of Lucio in particular are extremely suited to the possession based nature of the champions league.

The other midfield mainstays of the team are the talented but inconsistent Bastian Schweinsteiger, the evergreen Ze Roberto and the reassuring presence of Mark van Bommel in front of the defence. Ze Roberto continues to belie his age providing the guile in the centre of midfield to complement the steel of van Bommel, and it is easy to forget that he has been all the way to the champions league final before as part of the excellent Bayer Leverkusen side who lost to that unforgettable Zinedine Zidane volley in 2002.

The question remains as to exactly why this extremely talented side appear to have been written off. It is common consensus that any champions league winning side has a talisman that the side is built around, be it Ronaldo in 2008, Kaka in 2007, Ronaldinho in 2006 or Gerrard in 2005. Franck Ribery has all the qualities to be that player for Bayern, and is only likely to come into even better form in the second half of the season following a reasonably serious injury he suffered in the summer. The champions league will provide an escape that this Bayern side undoubtedly need from their league form, and I would wager that no one would fancy playing them in the quarter finals. It could well prove to be schadenfreude for the side involved.

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posted by Oz @ 11:40 AM   0 Comments

Monday, February 23, 2009

Pretty Shitty City

Manchester City have shown little signs that they are capable of meeting their ambitious targets...




I’ve had a real chip on my shoulder ever since the Abu Dhabi United Group arrived in Manchester to splash the cash around Eastland’s. I don’t know why but it really angered me that just because a large influx of cash was pumped into the club that they were being spoken about as the most likely to break into the top four and Manchester City officials were flying out to Saudi Arabia armed with ambitious documents about how everyone will be drinking Manchester city energy drinks in two years time.

Maybe the root of my irritation is more due to the fact that I had €20 on them to beat Stoke recently and then watched on in disbelief as they were not only beaten but couldn’t even carve a decent chance out against Stoke team reduced to ten men early in the game. Call me a cynic, call me an old boring bastard, but I for one was delighted when Kaka didn’t succumb to the truck loads of cash offered by the newly wealthy Manchester City. People told me he’ll definitely go, that it’s all about money these days and that no man could refuse a basic salary of £500,000 a week. So I found it refreshing that there is at least one player in the world with the integrity to say no to a transfer motivated only by money. Kaka showed a characteristic that appears to have deserted modern football... loyalty.

For the entire of last summer while a very exciting international tournament was progressing, the main headlines on the sports pages each day were dedicated to nonsense like “Ronaldo’s mother wants him to live in Spain”. Comments like this would be amplified in a flurry of rumours and it seemed inevitable that Christiano Ronaldo would turn his back on Old Trafford. In the end it didn’t materialise but throughout the ‘affair’ all it would have taken would’ve been Ronaldo to say a few simple words, “I'm happy in Manchester, I'm not going anywhere”... he never did.

Similar displays of disloyalty were displayed by Robinho in his transfer to Chelsea... eh I mean Man City. Robinho reportedly broke down in tears repeatedly in front of the Real president at the time, Ramón Calderón as he begged to be allowed leave the then Spanish champions and one of the most historical clubs in the world. He hoped to go to Chelsea, in the end it didn’t seem to matter to him which shade of blue he wore; his services went to the highest bidder.

This brings me back to Man City; along with the arrival of Robinho there was talk of breaking into the top four, league titles and Champions League campaigns. Man City fans rejoiced and fully believed that this was their break, that this could mean that they would finally no longer be the eternal bridesmaids to the red side of Manchester. However it hasn’t yet gone to script. Dumped out of both the Carling and FA cup they are currently mid table but still in the last 16 of the Uefa Cup. A key reason why things haven’t taken off as hoped is that when money has been invested before, like with Chelsea there was a better base of players there in the first place. At Manchester City they were looking to people like Darius Vassell to get their goals, the squad was desperately imbalanced and this was a club remember that not too long ago spent a season in the third tier of English football.

Robinho may have increased the profile of the club and made it a more desirable destination for other players but as wish-lists were being drawn up of players that will be bought fantasy football style, Cesc Fabregas summed it up best by dismissing a move to Manchester City by claiming “It would be career suicide”. David Villa, David Silva and Gianluigi Buffon obviously thought similarly and how could they think otherwise. Manchester City will definitely not be in next year’s Champions League and it’s very unlikely they will play in the competition in two years time.

Looking at who they did sign left-back Wayne Bridge was the club's first January signing, arriving from Chelsea for about £10m, quite a princely sum when you consider Wayne bridge became the best paid left full in the world after making the move. Craig Bellamy joined from West Ham for a fee believed to be worth £14m. Nigel De Jong joined shortly after with German media reporting that Mark Hughes's side may have paid as much as £18m to sign him even though the midfielder had a clause in his contract that would have allowed him to leave Hamburg in the summer for £1.8m.

The scene started to resemble a scenario I'm regularly faced with late on a Saturday night. There are ten minutes to go before the nightclub ends and the cream of the crop are either taken or have aggressively declared their lack of interest so the only alternative is to take whatever I can get or leave empty handed. This smash and grab approach (moving away from the analogy) is not going to work in the long run. Players like Craig Bellamy and Wayne Bridge definitely have talent but never seem consistent enough to cut it at big clubs. Also, despite spending a lot on transfers this season the squad still seems quite lightweight (Richard Dunne excluded) in defence.

It’s likely that City’s season will finish with a mediocre mid table position this year, but what will be more interesting than their form between now and May will be the calibre of players they bring in over the summer. It would seem a Uefa cup position would be the minimum they require if they are to attract the top tier talent over the summer. At the point of writing this it looks more likely that Robinho will leave the club rather than them being able to attract players of his calibre. To my eyes Manchester City have a stiff task ahead of them if they are to achieve the ambitious plans they have set for themselves.

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posted by Shane @ 11:12 PM   0 Comments

Monday's European Ramble

Real Madrid are making the Spanish title race interesting, but Arsenal continue to flatter to deceive...






Good Day

Real Madrid


For those who missed it, Real’s 6-1 demolition of Betis was an absolute spectacle and one which ought to serve as a warning to Liverpool fans who might be taking this side lightly. All six of Madrid’s goals came before half time, and Raul in particular put in a performance reminiscent of his very best form of years past. While some commentators openly laughed at the declaration of papers such as Marca that the “title was back on” after last weekend, this Madrid win coupled with Barca’s shock 2-1 loss has triggered memories of the spectacular Barcelona collapse of several years ago, ironically owing much to a bad result against Espanyol. The Madrid public are warming to Juande Ramos, and Wednesday’s tie will prove an interesting gauge of their progress thus far.


Inter Milan

A routine win for Jose Mourinho’s men means that they are well set up for what will prove to be an extremely difficult tie against Manchester United tomorrow night. With the possibility of Michael Carrick playing in defence for United, the stage is set for Zlatan Ibrahimovic to finally disprove the popular notion that he is a big game bottler who is not fit for the biggest stages. Even if Rio Ferdinand manages to keep him quiet, it would take a master class to ensure that a resurgent Adriano cannot inflict any damage on a patchwork quilt of a defence. It promises to be one of several classic ties, and will hopefully live up to the billing.


Manchester United


It would be silly to write United down to the status of underdogs simply because of some injuries in defence however. Saturday evenings win over Blackburn Rovers was by no means a stroll in the park, and had Howard Webb had the bottle to send Cristiano Ronaldo, United could well have found themselves in the bad day section this week. However, the win will come at a cost. The FA have no choice but to act given the petulance of Ronaldo’s kick, which coming only a few weeks after the Shaun Wright-Phillips incident carries an inevitable 3 match ban. Given the excellent performance of Wayne Rooney this is perhaps not as much of a handicap as it might be, but Jonny Evan’s recurrence of an ankle injury comes at a bad time for Alex Ferguson’s side. Rafael da Silva was dangerously exposed by Morten Gamst Pederson throughout the game, and were it not for an idiotic dive by the Norwegian winger, the damage might have been greater. The suspicion remains that Inter will prove extremely difficult opponents, but also that United are a better side than they are getting credit for.


Martin Jol

While Juande Ramos may be the more high profile former spurs manager to be grabbing the headlines, Martin Jol is certainly doing his best to show his former team the error of their ways in sacking him. Hamburg’s 2-1 win at the weekend took them to the top of the Bundesliga, and illustrated why despite Hoffenheim eating up the most column inches of any German side, that Hamburg are perhaps the revelation of this season. Marcell Jansen continued to underline his potential as a high quality striker with a brace, and combined with Bayern’s 2-1 home loss to Cologne, catapulted HSV to the summit. It beggars belief that spurs have let two excellent managers slip through the net only to employ a journeyman English coach who regards the UEFA cup as an inconvenience.


Fulham

It has been very much a season under the radar for Fulham, but one that has illustrated what an excellent job Roy Hodgeson is doing. Their workmanlike 2-0 win over West Brom at the weekend moves Fulham to 8th place in the premier league table, somewhere they should be extremely pleased with given the spending power of Manchester City and Spurs, both of whom are casting envious glances upwards at them. Even more pleased with his weekend’s work must be Bobby Zamora, whose goal broke a premiership duck lasting almost 1,800 minutes – surely some sort of record for a striker?


AZ Alkmaar

The Dutch league may not be the most fashionable these days, but one cannot deny that it has been the most topsy turvy season in living memory. Louis van Gaal has continued the extraordinary work he is doing by opening up a 9 point gap at the top of the Eredivisie table with only 10 games remaining in the season. What is even more extraordinary about this is that the team frantically chasing them in second place in not one of the holy trinity of Ajax, PSV and Feyenoord, but the Steve McClaren managed FC Twente. Ajax sit three points back from them with PSV in fourth, while Feyenood continue to struggle down the wrong end of the table despite a vital win at the weekend. To put van Gaal’s achievements into perspective, since the foundation of the Eredivisie in 1956, only 4 league titles have gone to teams outside of Holland’s big three, with AZ being the last to do so in the 1980/91 season. While the league table understandably makes for exciting reading, it may not be good for Dutch football in the long run. With Ajax and PSV struggling in Europe over recent seasons and Feyenoord rare participants since their UEFA cup win in the early years of the new millennium, these results may be the beginning of the end of Dutch teams proving to be any kind of a force in Europe.


Bad Day


Arsenal


The looming spectre of non qualification for the champions league is beginning to rear its ugly head at the emirates, and Arsene Wenger is doing little to dispel the notion that he has to a certain extent lost the plot. “Andrei Arshavin showed some good signs, but also showed that he is not completely fit,” said a deflated looking Wenger, but the fact that the Russian was the best player on the pitch in spite of this is a dire indictment of this season’s Arsenal side. Emmanuel Eboue continues to flatter to deceive, and although Robin van Persie is a wonderful talent, he certainly does not appear to relish physical games such as this one. It will be most interesting to see how the Arsenal fans, who booed their team off the field once again, react should Aston Villa do the unthinkable and break the top 4 dominance.


Liverpool

While you can’t help but admire the character of this Liverpool side, the fact remains that as a squad they are simply not good enough to win the premier league title. With Steven Gerrard hamstrung and Xabi Alonso cutting a frustrated figure on the sidelines due to suspension, the Liverpool midfield looked shorn of leadership and never likely to make the breakthrough. Dirk Kuyt’s admirable efforts were neutred by the ineffectiveness of Albert Riera and Yossi Benayoun, and the utter lack of drive from Javier Mascherano, who looks a shadow of the player he was last season. Even Fernando Torres had an off day, seemingly afflicted by the malaise that hovered like a cloud over Anfield yesterday. There has been undoubted progress at Liverpool this year, but it threatens to be undone by the failure of the criminally underrated Rafael Benitez to sign a new contract. Whether this is simply a hitch or something more dangerous remains to be seen, but the fear remains that Wednesday’s trip to the Bernabeu may prove to be the perfect stage for Rafa to stake his claim to Juande Ramos’ hotseat.


Luis Perea

An utterly awful day for the Atletico defender who not only saw his side slump to a late defeat at Sevilla, but was also the recipient of a hit that looked more suited to the NFL than La Liga, which broke his cheekbone, concussed him and put him out of action for at least a month. Atletico slip to 7th, behind Malaga, and are 5 points behind Villarreal who occupy the final champions league spot. The side are now at a crossroads, for should they seal a good result against Porto in midweek, the thought of missing out on European football will no doubt be an extremely unattractive one to the likes of Simao, Diego Forlan and most crucially, Kun Aguero. For the sadists amongst you, Forlan’s miss from 2 yards out is unquestionably the miss of the season – I would highly recommend a visit to youtube.


Victor Valdes


On the subject of sadism, the all round praise that Valdes had received in many quarters for his season last week was obviously not accompanied by many touches of wood. His error for De la Pena’s second in Barca’s 2-1 loss to Espanyol is one that will probably erase any hope of him being regarded as anything more than a calamity James type figure in his career.


Jurgen Klinnsman

It is promising to be a summer of discontent for the Bayern manager. Despite having one of the most talented squads seen in the Bundesliga for a long time, his side’s 2-1 loss to Cologne has continued to foster the impression that Germany’s run in the 2006 world cup had less to do with their manager and more to do with the phenomenal support they received. Without a good showing in the champions league, the risk of losing their talisman Ribery is going to be extreme.


Chievo Verona

The latest victims of an astonishingly lucky Fiorentina side that have won 4 out of their last 5 despite turning in some truly turgid performances. Adrian Mutu scored the winner after getting away with a foul described by Chievo manager Domenico di Carlo as a “kung fu move” in the build up. The result moves them above Genoa in the champions league places, but you have to believe that an improving Roma side will catch them despite being two points off the pace.


Everton

While Kevin Nolan’s horror challenge on Victor Anichibe will grab the headlines, it was the 3rd minute, season ending breakdown of Mikel Arteta that will do the most damage, and will ensure a few headaches for a second merseyside based manager this week.

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posted by Oz @ 6:48 PM   0 Comments

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Rotation Argument Comes Full Circle

Sir Alex may yet be toasting Rafa come the end of the season...




As the news came through last night that Wayne Rooney had scored United's third en route to yet another routine win over Fulham, one Rafa Benitez must have smiled a wry smile, the kind you put on for a joke you don’t quite understand, at a dinner party you don’t quite want to be at. Paul Scholes and Michael Carrick turned in yet another excellent performance by the United centre midfield, and the addition of a good performance by Dimitar Berbatov ensured that the hosts cruised to a 3-0 victory. Nothing unusual you might say. On the contrary – this was another superb performance in the middle of the park despite the Scholes – Carrick axis being the sixth midfield pairing United have used this season.


It is an astonishing statistic, and one that will not have gone unnoticed behind closed doors at Anfield. Squad rotation has become a sort of footballing pariah over the last number of seasons, and one which has plagued Benitez in particular. It is one which has also evoked some quite ridiculous commentary over the years with Tony Cascarino citing Rafa’s “resting” of Fernando Torres as the reason Liverpool fell away in the title race despite him being rested for all of one premier league game at the time. Commentary on the issue has been conspicuously absent this year, with this seemingly down to a combination of a more settled Liverpool side and the Robbie Keane issue taking precedence over any other stories related to the club.


The statistics make for extremely interesting reading. With the exception of Cristiano Ronaldo with 29 appearances, no United midfielder has made more than 23 starts this year in all competitions. When you consider that Ronaldo was out injured for a considerable period at the start of the season, this becomes doubly intriguing. Players that would have threatened to be bit part players at the start of the season have become integral to United’s inexorable march towards the title. John O’Shea, (23 starts) Jonny Evans, (17) Ryan Giggs (17) and Paul Scholes (12) have all made far bigger contributions to the side than their appearance figures would indicate. While the likes of Alan Hansen are going a bit over the top with calls for Giggs to be crowned PFA player of the year, there is no doubt that their seamless integration into the side is a key reason for United charging like an enraged hippo through what on paper should have been a punishing schedule, particularly with the trip to Japan in December.


Nigel Clough summed it up nicely following his Derby sides 4-1 trouncing on Sunday when he said, "It's impossible to prepare for playing against them. We watched them for six consecutive games and they played six completely different teams with different ways of playing. You can watch them in 60 consecutive ways but then they'll just change who plays where." This is an extremely astute point. It’s all well and good preparing a team to deal with Michael Carrick and Paul Scholes, but you could just as easily be facing a combination of Ryan Giggs and Anderson come kick off. The squad depth at defence has been highlighted through injuries and suspensions to Rio Ferdinand and Patrice Evra throughout the season, and Gary Neville has been able to rest his weary ‘tasche while Rafael da Silva fills in admirably. A lot has been made of Carlos Tevez not getting a fair chance, but he has made the same number of starts as Rooney this year, and is only one behind Berbatov.


What I am trying to get at is that with the exception of Cristiano Ronaldo, not a single Manchester United midfielder or forward appears to have nailed down a position as their own. This kind of carry on would typically result in some bad results, and a public crying that too much rotation is the cause. Yet United have come back fresh from their travels, motivated because of Ferguson and apparently hell bent on disproving the managerial cliché that squad rotation is the root of all evil.


This begs the question; why has squad rotation not worked for its greatest proponent over the years, one Senor Benitez? It comes down to the issue of quality at the end of the day; United are able to call on the likes of Ryan Giggs when needed, one of the most decorated players in the history of the game, while the Liverpool sides of the past few years would spring Igor Biscan or Florent Sinama-Pongolle when one of their key men needed a rest. It would be rude not to acknowledge the formidable displays of Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand when analyzing United’s year thus far, but much of United’s success to date has less to do with the record breaking 14 clean sheets, and more to do with Alex Ferguson’s continuing presence at the forefront of footballing innovation. He has consistently been able to identify the trends necessary to succeed over the years, and if his side is to master a difficult fixture list and achieve an unprecedented quadruple, he may well be tipping a glass of cabernet sauvignon to the manager of his greatest rivals.

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posted by Oz @ 7:33 PM   0 Comments