Thursday, August 13, 2009

A Game of Four Quarters



A Treasonous Breach of the Foundations of English League Football




Ready the gallows, prepare the guillotine and inform the firing squad; for what I’m about to suggest is a treasonous breach of the ‘foundations’ of English League Football. As can be discerned from the barrage of overwhelmingly clichéd soundbites yawned at us by Premier League managers every year, the League is the staple of every English Club. While those competing in Europe, except in the Europa League, would obviously love to come home brandishing a big, shiny, foreign thing, and for Everton the FA Cup is a nice distraction, managers from Big Sam to Brian Little have convinced us over the years that The League is their bread and butter. Well, what I suggest is not that we change the basic diet of the Premier League altogether, but merely divide the hallowed format into quarters.
The League is rightly considered so sacred as it is felt that it represents the only logical way to determine the truly best team in the country. Only by having every team play the same teams the same amount of times every year and comparing the results, it is believed, can the true Champion be determined. While this logic remains sound, I feel that it is also a system that is responsible for maintaining the biggest problem in English football at the moment; the disparity between the Big Four and the rest. The lack of parity in the Premier League is a self-sustaining problem, i.e. the rich get richer. The League format and Champion’s League qualification procedures have ensured that there remains little hope for those outside but to pray for a outrageously wealthy Arab.
Like Aston Villa, Man United and Arsenal before, the way forward may lie in looking across the Atlantic. While many with little appreciation for the format of US sports will find this detestable, the best way to cure the ennui and nausea caused by the least exciting of the major leagues in the world is to adopt the US system of dividing the competing clubs into smaller geographical regions.
This is what I suggest: taking last years competing Premier League clubs, we divide the Premiership into four, roughly geographical, Divisions:
1. London- Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Tottenham, West Ham
2. Midlands- Aston Villa, Porstmouth, Stoke, West Brom, Wigan
3. North-West- Bolton, Everton, Liverpool, Man Utd, Man City
4. North-East- Blackburn, Hull, Middlebrough, Newcastle, Sunderland

As anyone with a passing knowledge of English Geography will realise, these are not strictly geographical but as close as can be attained while maintaining equal numbers, but strict alignment is not important, the important part is the grouping together of the current strongest teams.
The fixture list would work as such: Each year the teams in each Division play each other four times- twice home and away. The teams in two Divisions, changing year on year, will play each other home and away once. The remaining fixtures will consist of teams in one division playing all the teams in another at home, and all the teams in the remaining division away. For instance, every year all the London teams play each home and away twice. Then, all the teams in London play the teams in North-East home and away. The teams in London then play all the Midland teams at home and the remainder of their fixture list is made up of games away to teams in the North-West. Each division would have a similar structure but consisting of different opponents each year. Thus there would be a 36 game season each year, with all the teams competing in the same Division playing the same teams, maintaining the crucial element of fairness provided by the league format. The winners of each division would go into a playoff format with the winner with most points playing the winner with the least at home, this being followed by an ultimate Final between the playoff winners. While the playoff participants would be the Champions League representatives the following season. The finalists would each play a total of 38 games. Relegation would be determined in a similar way, with playoffs and the two defeated teams being sent down.
While this may seem unbelievably complicated, the league table at the bottom explains how last year would have panned out using the Division system.
I realise that proposing a replacement for the traditional league format is blasphemy. A curse against the God that is football. But football is already cursed. For better or worse the Premier League has abolished numerous traditions of English football as it once was. Gone are 3pm Saturday afternoon kick-offs. Gone is Match of the Day as the only source of TV football. Gone is the fan with the fag in the crowded terrace. Gone is the two-way street of player/club loyalty. Gone is a fair competition between competing teams. I am casting no judgment on the benefits or detriments of each of these changes to football as we know it, I am merely making the point that football in the last 20 years has changed more than in the previous 100, and that it is time to realise that nothing is sacred anymore, Sky and Setanta have made sure of that. Everything is subject to change. So why not the league format.
By placing the Big Four into the same division it ensures that only two can reach the playoffs each year. As the league below indicates, they would most likely dominate any smaller team in the division, but gradually, as success breeds success, the smaller teams would grow and attract better players. Conversely, the richer teams, without the guarantee of a place in the top four and European football, would lose attractiveness to fans and players and thus would come back toward the field. The rich would get poorer and vice versa.
The effect of having the stronger teams competing for limited places in the final reckoning has benefits beyond simply bringing them back toward the field. By having Chelsea and Arsenal play each other twice as often as normal, it will arguably lead to the best team being declared division winner. By increasing the direct competition between Man Utd and Liverpool, then truly the better side can be determined. Wouldn’t we rather the league was decided not by which team beats Hull most often, but by which team beats their direct competition for honours most often? I hear the deafening assent of Liverpool fans.
Yet, the noble pursuit of unhindered competition is not the only benefit of the system. The darker, financially-driven aspects would also prosper. Year on year, the most popular games in the League, both in TV viewers and in attendance, are the games between the Big Four and derby games. By doubling the amount of Man Utd-Liverpool, Chelsea-Arsenal, Man-Utd-Man City, Liverpool-Everton, Arsenal-Tottenham and Newcastle-Sunderland games, both the gate receipts and viewing figures would increase over the season. The argument that this might dilute the product, as it were, can be rejected with a view north of the border, where the Old Firm derbies happen just as frequently but remain no less viewed or enjoyed by fans. As an added benefit, every two seasons, there would only be one Man Utd-Chelsea or Arsenal-Liverpool game, so it would become an occasion to savour and one-off spectacle that year.
Every season, like clockwork, right around Christmas, we hear a loud groaning emanating from somewhere in the League. Sir Alex, after a 1-1 draw away to Fulham, two days after a victory in the FA Cup, will moan about fixture congestion. Or a player will look enviously at the continent and lament the lack of a winter break in the Premiership. The Division system has only 36 games for 60% of the teams. By shaving two valuable weeks off the calendar for the season, we could finally afford to give the poor, overworked players a Christmas break. In return, maybe they would shut up and stop comparing themselves to slaves.
Any financial loss incurred by having two less league games every year could be offset by the increase in interest in the Premiership Playoffs and Final, sure to garner greater viewing figures than a last day of the season, 11th place showdown between Bolton and Wigan.
But I can hear the arguments already. The existing league format is the only objectively fair system to determine the best league in the country. Well the current system is not fair, that’s plain to see. Without any hope of competing financially with the Champions League clubs, other clubs have no chance of competing at all. In any case, the league below illustrates that the system has very little effect on the overall points tallies of most teams. The stronger teams will still get more points, but the system allows them the weaker teams a chance to compete at the business end of the season; in the playoffs.
In actual fact, the current league system is not objectively fair anyway. The Aston Villa that Chelsea play away in September is bound to markedly different from the one Liverpool play away in May. Injuries, form, January signings, fixtures and any possible change in management will make a difference in terms of the difficulty of the task facing the teams. At least by competing against your direct rivals more often over a season, the chance of the truly better team emerging victorious increases.
I’m not a fool, I realise that the chances of this system being adopted are as likely as an Ngog hat-trick. Neither the fans, with their attachment to ‘tradition’ and Amerophobia nor the Big Four, with their attachment to their wallets, will stand for it but something must be done. The wealthier the Big Four get, the poorer the League becomes as a whole and there’s only so many Middle-Eastern bazillionaires willing to come in and Sheikh things up.


Playoffs: Liverpool v Sunderland
Chelsea v Aston Villa

Relegation Playoffs: Fulham v Middlesbrough
W Brom v Bolton


Guest Article Submitted by: Barra Neary


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posted by Rich @ 5:37 PM   4 Comments

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Let the games begin....




With the new season only a week away the team reveals their predictions for the coming 9 months...

Oskar's Predictions

1 Arsenal
2 Liverpool
3 United
4 Chelsea
5 Man City
6 Tottenham

Bottom 3
18 Wolves
19 Burnley
20 Portsmouth

Top Scorer
Dimitar Berbatov

In what has been an off season that has been characterised more by subtraction then addition, the landscape of the top of the premier league has seen significant upheaval.

While it is big spending Manchester City that have grabbed the headlines with their lavish spending, the departures of Cristiano Ronaldo and Xabi Alonso are likely to cause just as much commotion as Arsenal’s Kolo Toure and Emmanuel Adebayor. While three of last year’s top 4 are involved in this wheeling and dealing, it is the final member of the group who are conspicuous in their absence. Chelsea are many people’s favourites for the title this year, often because of the virtue that their pre season has been the most settled. There have been no high profile departures from Chelsea this year, despite sustained interest in Ricardo Carvalho, Joe Cole and most of all, John Terry. The fearsome Michael Essien continues to draw the plaudits and Didier Drogba’s signature on a 2 year contract extension will have caused more wrist related pleasure to Chelsea fans then they ever could have thought possible. However despite this, I believe the blues will finish fourth this year.

Let’s be honest – they will stroll into the champions league places. I simply can’t see City disturbing the top four this season, at least without the addition of a quality defender. But if Carlo Ancelotti’s record in charge of a bunch of pensioners is anything to go by, league glory is a long way away from Chelsea’s grasp just yet. In charge of a settled, talented but grey Milan team, Ancelotti won only one scudetto in what is a very long time in Serie A football. It is still astonishing that Galliani, Berlusconi et al deemed to keep him in a job given his last few seasons at Milan. With Yuri Zhirkov the only major addition to a side that needs major freshening up, I can see Chelsea adrift of the other big 3, although don’t be surprised to see them finally succeed in Europe.

Manchester United are perhaps the hardest side to predict this season. The departure of Cristiano Ronaldo is undoubtedly going to have a big effect on the champions, with many games last season won solely through the magic right foot of the world’s best and most arrogant player. Replacing his goals is going to be a huge challenge for United, but not so much I would suspect as winning the midfield battle. The anonymous performance of Anderson in the champions league final suggests the talented youngster has a bit more to go before he is good enough to be a mainstay in this side, and despite Michael Carrick and Darren Fletcher being useful players, neither would instantly command a place in the midfield of Chelsea or Liverpool. On the flanks, Luis Antonio Valencia is an exciting prospect who one suspects may struggle at this level, while neither Giggs nor Nani would inspire any fear into the opposition. While I have a feeling that this is the season Wayne Rooney will be exposed as being far from world class, I also feel that Dimitar Berbatov is the man who will get the goals for United this season. Marginalised under the reign of King Ronaldo, the Bulgarian maestro will live up to his £30m fee this year, and I predict will be this season’s top scorer. The defence will be rock solid as usual, and Ben Foster will claim the England number one jersey but there isn’t enough bite in midfield to sustain a title challenge, despite three victories on the trot.

Liverpool were originally my favourites to win it all this year, but the departure of Xabi Alonso has left a gaping void in the middle of the park. Benitez has done well to get £30m out of Madrid for a defensive midfield player, but neither Lucas nor new boy Alberto Aquilani is the answer here. Liverpool have lost their heartbeat, and while they are far too talented a side not to challenge for the title, I fear they will come up slightly short, by 3 or 4 points. While it is hard not to rate a side that boasts a motivated Steven Gerrard, a fully fit Fernando Torres, a consistently excellent defense upgraded by an £18m full back and the vastly underappreciated Dirk Kuyt, it is hard to escape the notion that Liverpool without Alonso is the equivalent of an Arsenal without Fabregas.

It is this very Arsenal who I believe are this year’s champions in waiting, despite their 9-1 price tag with the bookies. Arsene Wenger has the look of someone who has indentified the problems in his team and who knows how to fix them. A combined fee of £39m for Adebayor and Toure is masterful business, and although the Frenchman has not yet spent the proceeds, I expect a midfielder with steel to be recruited to help Fabregas in the centre of the park. Thomas Vermaelen, despite his much cited lack of height, is an astute addition to the squad, and Johan Djourou is deserving of an extended run in the first team. Two top class full backs and an underrated keeper give Arsenal a solid look, but expect to see Wenger’s failed 4-5-1 experiment manifest itself into a 4-3-3 with the lethal Arshavin and the brilliant van Persie complementing Nicholas Bendtner in the centre. The mercurial 17 year old Jack Wilshere has looked excellent in pre season, and based on how much he has bulked up I expect him to play a big role in the gunners season this year, although Theo Walcott may find himself marginalised. Wenger’s patience has been both his virtue and his greatest flaw, but I feel that this is the season he will be rewarded. The Arshavin compromise with his philosophy has added a new dimension to the team, and with so much attacking talent in one side I can see Cesc Fabregas lifting the premiership trophy this season.

At the other end of the table, the only team I see surviving of the newly promoted threesome is Birmingham City. Alex McLeish appears to have heeded the lessons of his relegation season by bringing in some foreign talent in the form of the powerful Christian Benitez, who despite an injury which will rule him out of the start of the season, has potential to be an excellent signing for the blues. The astute purchase of Roger Johnson from Cardiff City along with a solid spine to the team makes them survival material in my book. I hate Phil Brown as much as the next man, but I believe his patience in the transfer market will be rewarded with another season in the top flight. Seyi Olofinjana adds beef to a midfield that desperately needs it, and the addition of Jozy Altidore could in my opinion prove to be a masterstroke that allows Brown to take the pressure off Geovanni.

Wolves survival prospects can be shot down in two words: Mick McCarthy. Burnley’s can be killed off with a swift glance at what is a bloody awful squad. The established side I fear for this year is Portsmouth. Virtually unrecognisable from Harry Redknapps FA cup winners, the farce surrounding their takeover bid has put the south coast side in massive danger of relegation this year. If Sylvain Distin leaves the sinking ship for Liverpool as expected, they will lack solidity as well as bite – let’s not forget that Kanu and David Nugent are their only two strikers as of now. They look relegation certainties to me, and probably face a reunion with Milan Mandaric in the 2010/2011 championship season.

That’s it for my preview – for the record Barca win the Spanish league, Inter the Italian, Stuttgart the bundesliga and Chelsea the champions league. Here’s hoping for a great season.

Shane's Predictions

Top 6:
1 Chelsea
2 Man U
3 Pool
4 Arsenal
5 Everton
6 Man City

Bottom 3
18 Hull
19 Portsmouth
20 Burnley

Top Scorer
Anelka

Compared to last year’s squads none of the top four have yet strengthened (by the time the season begins Chelsea will probably gazump me by signing David Villa and Franck Ribery) and in fact you could argue that Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal have gotten weaker in comparison to last year. As a result my favourites for the title this year are Chelsea.

For the last few years Chelsea have had the strongest squad in the Premiership and if it wasn’t for the revolving door fixed outside their manager’s office I believe they would have won a lot more. They have remember been extremely close, in ’08 they lost the Champions league and Carling Cup finals and were pipped to the premiership on the last day. After last year’s much talked about semi with Barca they can again count themselves unlucky/robbed not to have got the chance to atone their previous years champions league final defeat. In terms of their league campaign last year they definitely suffered from the instability of Scolari’s departure but a worrying stat for Ferguson et al is that Chelsea picked up 34 points from the last 13 games of the season when a steady manager arrived. I predict Ancelotti to have a similar effect as Hiddink, he’s been hugely successful with a ‘mature’ squad at Milan and will have a similar age profile at Chelsea. Not that thats important, what is important is how he sets his team out. The Italian favours a midfield diamond which will liberate Frank Lampard. Unlike Scolari, he will benefit from the energy of a fully fit Michael Essien and a focused Didier Drogba, with Yuri Zhirkov – recommended by Hiddink – a potentially eye-catching addition on the left. Add to this the ever improving Florent Malouda, Michael Ballack, Joe Cole, Ashley Cole, Nicholas Anelka and a fit again Ricky Carvalho back to partner “Mr Chelsea… if the price is right” John Terry and you’ve got a squad that I think will triumph come next May.

Ruling out Man Utd is always dangerous.... The obvious argument is that United will struggle to find the goals Ronaldo scored but it’s a real problem they face and difficult to see where else those 25-30 goals will come from. Less obvious is Tevez’s effect on United’s season last year. He single handedly dug them out of a few games they looked destined to drop points in last year and came up with goals and assists at crucial points of crucial games.

Last summer Benitez felt Alonso was surplus to requirements but this year he tried everything to keep his compatriot. The fact that new boy Aquilani has barely played since March would worry me and I think the Pool will find a gaping gaping 'not too shabby' Alonso shaped hole in midfield as his guile, experience and passing range is difficult to replace. I also think Liverpool played above themselves for much of last season. They needed their best season for years to stick with United and even then they fell 4 points short. I don’t think they will be able to last the pace again this year.

93% of Arsenal fans don’t think they can win the league without landing a major signing (according to a poll on the clubs website) and I couldn’t argue with them. In fact I think they need two or three signings of Arshavin’s quality to be considered serious contenders. They are a class act on their day but have too many off days when they fall behind in a game and with nobody in the team capable of pulling them out they end up dropping points in games where none of their title rivals struggle.

Some may be surprised that I don’t predict Man City to challenge at all. It will be very interesting to follow their progress but my tip is for them to be as mediocre as the ambition of the players who joined them. Saying that I think they’ll have enough quality to see them to a Uefa cup spot.

In terms of relegation, I probably could have picked six teams likely to go down but I think Burnley, Hull and Portsmouth will be the weakest and I’m not looking forward to watching games involving any of them.

Most importantly and to have it as printed proof if Chelsea finish above Arsenal this year than Oskar Persson will have to bow down to yours truly and hand over a cool 20 bills. Come on you blues....


Fenning's Predictions

1-Liverpool
2-Man Utd
3-Chelsea
4-Arsenal
5-Man City
6-Everton

18-Hull City
19-Pompey
20-Burnley

Top Scorer: Dider Drogba

Liverpool have strengthened their squad in a few important areas (Glen Johnson and Aquilani) and for this reason I believe they will end the 19 year wait and lift the Premier League for the first time. Also I believe Liverpool will bring in one more player before the end of the window. My concerns lie, predictably, with the fitness of Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard, and then secondly, the ability to fill the spot which Alonso has vacated. Javier Mascherano is a young player who has plenty of ability; Liverpool fans will hope that he can improve the passing element to his game.

The rest of the top 4 have all lost important players. I believe Wayne Rooney will be a huge player for Man Utd this season. But not even Rooney can be expected to score the goals that Ronaldo has scored in recent years and he will also have to cover for the departed Carlos Tevez.

Chelsea will be interesting to watch under a new manager, but I believe it will take Carlo Ancellotti a season or two to understand the frantic pace of the English game.

I think Man City will be a real force this year, but a top four spot is just out of their reach as it will take time for all their new players to gel.

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posted by Shane @ 1:07 PM   0 Comments